06 Dec CPO Trading Commentary

06-12-13

Technical Outlook:

We see a low volatility (High 2,653 Low 2,627) yesterday with daily closing above 20 days SMA at 2,641. ADX and ±DM are trending down simultaneously could imply another consolidation period with trading range between 2,600 to 2,680, this shall valid range until further major outbreak above or below the range.

Hourly closing is just slightly above 20 SMA and below the uptrend hourly channel supporting line as well, frequent crossing within ±DI has left price move in choppy pattern. Trading signal can be found from 30 minutes chart where +DI cross above –DI and MACD converging at level 0. This could be a rebound signal however the strength is unclear at the moment as ADX reading at 17, if it hike above 30 then it shall be strong rally.

Trade Recommendation (FCPO):

For intraday (short term) traders we recommend to long around 2,630 (hourly 20 period SMA) with target profit around 2,678 (previous high) and stop loss at 2,611 (daily 20 SMA). For overnight (mid-long term) traders, we recommend to long around 2,630 with larger target profit at 2,680 – 2,690 and stop loss at 2,600, this is in consistent with the forecasted trading range and also the third supporting and resistance pivot point.    

Trade Recommendation (FKLI):

With global equity index correction for third consecutive days, including US index such as DowJones, S&P500, NASDAQ, HK index like Hang Seng, Japan index like Nikkei, we expect the impact will go to FKLI soon or at least cap its movement below 1,820. FKLI intra traders are advised to short after a low volatility trading range yesterday (1812-1819.5), 20days EMA still below 40days EMA combining with irrationality as lower volume but ended with higher closing price. Traders can short between 1,816-1,820, the target profit shall be 1,800 and stop loss shall be at 1,830. Long term traders could wait for chances to long if it spikes above 1,825, with target profit at 1,835 and stop loss at 1,815.