10 DEC FCPO/FKLI Daily Trading Commentary (Malaysia)

Short FKLI @ 1841 : Target profit (1820) Stop Loss (1850) Long FCPO @ 2650 : Target proft (2670-80) Stop Loss (2,610)

Technical Outlook (FCPO):

Daily closing at 2,639, hovering around the 20 days SMA again with ADX going down to 34, move in tandem with +DI slipping towards 25 and –DI surging up to 15. We notice a clear strong support for the prices was found from both 20days SMA and the uptrend channel, which is around parabolic SAR at 2,604, any movement below 2,600 will mean the breaching of supporting level and correction will expand further.

However, from the hourly RSI, we see that ADX and ±DI are consolidating with –DI looking to slid below level 30. This could mean a new hourly trend could be forming in next few bars. We further look for 30 minutes chart where the 30 minutes downtrend might finish soon since RSI rebounding from 35 earlier, and +DI looking to cross above –DI.

Trade Recommendation (FCPO):

Intraday traders are recommended to catch the rebound if the price reach above 2,650 which is the 20 period hourly SMA and target profit at 2.670-80 (second pivot resistance point), and stop loss at 2,610 (second pivot supporting point).

For long term overnight traders, as this could enter into few days consolidation period which trading around the range of 2,600-2,800, we advice to short if it breach below 2595 (around the psychological supporting level at 2,600) or else accumulating long position at weakness around 2,610 – 2,630 (target profit at 2,700 and stop loss at 2,595).

Trade Recommendation (FKLI):

We still maintain strong sell on FKLI as per yesterday with further supporting from chart pattern of reverse divergence from the reading of daily RSI:

Intraday traders can short around 1,840 with target profit at 1,820 and stop loss at 1,851. Overnight or long term traders are recommended to long at weakness which could be around 1,805 to 1,820, with stop loss below 1,800 and target profit around 1,850, it might not be happening today hence we shall closely monitor.

10 DEC FCPO/FKLI Daily Trading Commentary (Malaysia)

10-12-13

Technical Outlook (FCPO):

CPO surged to high at 2,689 yesterday, near to its previous high at 2,692 but the selling pressure has caused the price tumbled down and close at 2,645. This closing price is still well supported by 20 SMA which is at 2,625 and the daily uptrend channel, point to note where parabolic SAR has now at the bottom of the price and indicate another uptrend will come soon.

From the hourly chart, we can see the hourly closing price is at the supporting line of the uptrend channel, third time in this month since the beginning of December. Price normally rebound after hovering around the supporting line for few more bars. However we noticed –DI has just crossed above +DI, means the correction could go further with the reading that hourly MACD converge at 0, while at the positive territory.

 Trade Recommendation (FCPO):

For intraday traders we advised to long at weakness which is around 2,635 with cut loss at 2,610 (second pivot supporting point) and target profit at 2,676 (first pivot resistance point). Overnight and long term traders can look for opportunity to accumulate long position around 2,630-2,640 with stop loss at 2,595 (below the 2,600 supporting price) and target profit at 2,700.

Technical Outlook (FKLI):

Gap open at 1,839 with close at 1,836.5 indicate very strong uptrend for KLCI in near future, however, daily ADX reading at 46.3 where previously it has a tendency of short term correction after the ADX breach above 45. It combines with the reading of daily RSI at 68, base on the previous pattern it might breach or approach level 70 then correction will come shortly afterwards.

This is line with hourly chart where RSI is at high of 71 since yesterday, looking to trend downwards and the ADX is at 69.1, historical high since 24 October, it indicates trend strength could come to an end with reversal is very likely to happen with –DI coming up from bottom and +DI slipping down.

Trade Recommendation (FKLI):

For intraday traders, we advise to catch the short term correction and can short around 1,840 with target profit at 1,820 and stop loss at 1,850. Overnight or long term traders are recommended to long at weakness which could be around 1,805 to 1,820, with stop loss below 1,800 and target profit around 1,850, it might won’t be happening today hence we shall closely monitor.

09 Dec CPO/KLI Trading Commentary

09-12-13

Technical Outlook:

Forth continuous higher weekly closing at 2,670 indicate strong bullish trend on CPO and is expected to continue as the ADX reading remain strong at level 46. Uptrend signal from weekly is consistent with the daily charts where close rest above 20 days SMA, +DI curving up again and MACD looking to converge again from negative territory. Daily parabolic SAR at 2,687 and pivot resistant point of 2,685 will be served as significant resistance level for CPO.

Hourly reading of RSI trending upwards to 63.4, MACD diverge to +2 and ADX curving up to 27, all technical indicators above are signalling strong momentum on bullish trend. We foresee the last previous high at 2,678 will be resistance level for short term movement.  

Trade Recommendation (FCPO):

Intraday traders are recommended to long around 2,660 with target profit around 2,700 (second pivot resistance point) and stop loss at 2,620 (20days SMA). For overnight (long term) traders we recommend to long around 2,660 with target profit at 2,720 and stop loss at 2,620.  

Trade Recommendation (FKLI):
Global market correction has failed to affect solid performance of FKLI and US equity index encounter a strong rebound last Friday where majority foresee that bull run will continue. FKLI has shown its bullish momentum with closing higher at 1,821 despite drop in volume, indicated that could be accumulating from institution. It had tried to breach above 1825 however it fail while leaving daily high at 1825.5. Weekly ADX looking to cross above 20 level which means a significant bull run will be foreseen in next few weeks and this reading is in line with daily ADX. Intraday traders are advised to long around 1,820 with target profit at 1,835 and stop loss at 1805 (20 days EMA). Overnight (long term) traders are advised to long around 1,820 with target profit at 1850 and stop loss at 1800 (40 days EMA).

06 Dec CPO Trading Commentary

06-12-13

Technical Outlook:

We see a low volatility (High 2,653 Low 2,627) yesterday with daily closing above 20 days SMA at 2,641. ADX and ±DM are trending down simultaneously could imply another consolidation period with trading range between 2,600 to 2,680, this shall valid range until further major outbreak above or below the range.

Hourly closing is just slightly above 20 SMA and below the uptrend hourly channel supporting line as well, frequent crossing within ±DI has left price move in choppy pattern. Trading signal can be found from 30 minutes chart where +DI cross above –DI and MACD converging at level 0. This could be a rebound signal however the strength is unclear at the moment as ADX reading at 17, if it hike above 30 then it shall be strong rally.

Trade Recommendation (FCPO):

For intraday (short term) traders we recommend to long around 2,630 (hourly 20 period SMA) with target profit around 2,678 (previous high) and stop loss at 2,611 (daily 20 SMA). For overnight (mid-long term) traders, we recommend to long around 2,630 with larger target profit at 2,680 – 2,690 and stop loss at 2,600, this is in consistent with the forecasted trading range and also the third supporting and resistance pivot point.    

Trade Recommendation (FKLI):

With global equity index correction for third consecutive days, including US index such as DowJones, S&P500, NASDAQ, HK index like Hang Seng, Japan index like Nikkei, we expect the impact will go to FKLI soon or at least cap its movement below 1,820. FKLI intra traders are advised to short after a low volatility trading range yesterday (1812-1819.5), 20days EMA still below 40days EMA combining with irrationality as lower volume but ended with higher closing price. Traders can short between 1,816-1,820, the target profit shall be 1,800 and stop loss shall be at 1,830. Long term traders could wait for chances to long if it spikes above 1,825, with target profit at 1,835 and stop loss at 1,815. 

05 Dec CPO Trading Commentary

05-12-13

Technical Outlook:

Daily closing above the trend line and above 20 days SMA at 2,656 confirm the continuing bullish trend in CPO. Although ADX trending down to 36, which is an overall indication of weaker trend, however with no other sign of reversal or correction, the bullish formation shall remain strong with RSI going to 62.

Hourly closing is resting above 20 SMA and back within the channel right after the false breakout yesterday at 2,619. We believe that another bullish trend will be coming as MACD at reading of 2 and diverging above level of 0, +DI has just crossed –DI and RSI looking to try level 70. We look for confirmation at 30 minutes chart, the +DI trending downwards could be a sign of quick correction before the rally starts again.

Trade Recommendation:

Intraday and overnight traders are advised to long around 2,640 (Hourly SMA with Period 20) with stop loss at 2,600, the well supported level which has been tested couple of times before, and target profit at 2,680.

04 Dec CPO Trading Commentary

04-12-13

Technical Outlook:

Daily closing at 2,619 rests exactly on the 20 days SMA, we can see strong support from the long traders with higher than average volume at 21,563. Daily indicators are somehow provide contradicting view where –DI looking to cross +DI and MACD further diverge to -4.

Hourly closing below 20 SMA, the 2,600 round number supporting level was tested at the trading low of 2,605, -DI has cross above +DI hence the bearish trend is formed with reading of RSI slipped from 70 towards 40. We can later observe from 30 minutes chart where similar pattern was realized yet no sign of rebound from the indicators.

 Trade Recommendation:

Risk-averse intraday traders are advised to take on conservative approach which to short if any breakout below 2,595 (stop loss - 2,630 target profit -2,560). However higher risk appetite intraday traders can catch the probability of rebound and long around 2,615 (stop loss - 2,595 target profit 2,635).

Overnight traders shall short around 2,595 (stop loss - 2,630 target profit -2,560) or long around 2,640 (stop loss – 2,600 target profit 2,680)

03 Dec CPO trading commentary

03-12-13

Technical Outlook:

Daily closing at 2,643 with RSI slipping back to 62, -DI is climbing up and +DI is trending down, MACD figure at -2, combining the indicators above it is reflected that downtrend could be forming and it will be confirmed once –DI cross +DI and MACD further diverge to larger negative number and RSI drop below 60.

Last hourly closing below 20 SMA shall be deemed as breach of buying support, -DI has crossed above +DI, however ADX (currently at 25) could be key reading on how strong this correction could rally. Nonetheless, 30 minutes chart somehow show an end of correction when +DI looking forward to cross –DI and its RSI is curving up from 46 and MACD looking to converge.

Trade Recommendation:

Intraday traders are advised to short around 2,658 (its first pivot resistance point) and stop loss at 2,678 (its previous daily high), profit target shall be around 20 ticks movement which is 2,638. On the other hand, overnight traders can try to long at weakness which is around 2,630 with stop loss at 2,600 (the round figure supporting level and 20 days SMA), target profit around 2,660.  

02Dec CPO trading commentary

02-12-13

Technical Outlook:

Third continuous higher weekly closing at 2,654 (12 points higher than prior weekly close) for CPO with RSI hovering around level of 63, ±DM offer no sign of technical correction at the moment however ADX is slipping towards level 30 directing weaker bullish trend hence higher possibility to enter into consolidation period.  From the daily chart, closing above 20 days SMA show supporting from the buyer, however frequent converge and diverge on daily MACD might indicate equal bargaining power between buyer and seller since 11 Nov.

Hourly chart RSI tumbled down to 57, –DM looking to curve up, +DI and ADX are trending down and MACD is converging. These all are pointing to the direction of technical correction and lack of buying powers. Similar pattern was found also in 30 minutes chart, which close rest exactly on supporting line drawn from previous two lower points.

Trade Recommendation:

Intraday traders are advised to short around 2,660 with stop loss at 2,690 and target profit around 2,630 to ride on the short term bearish outlook, extra attention need to be paid if any strong rebound which could subsequently commence another bullish trend. Overnight traders are advised to long around 2,625 which is the second supporting pivot point.